No Más Miedo? Political Violence Makes a Comeback, El Cafecito del 19/06
Colombia prays, Argentina militarises, and across the region, violence is making a political comeback.
☕ Welcome to El Cafecito — your weekly brew of Latin America, served strong and sin filtro.
This week, the hemisphere lurches between déjà vu and crisis. In Colombia, a teenage hitman and a shadowy mafia boss bring back memories of the 1980s — and not in a nostalgic way. Argentina balances economic calm with democratic unease. Ecuador and Mexico escalate their “war on crime,” and Bolivia wants the world to chill about coca. Meanwhile, Brazil plans to host COP30 while auctioning off offshore oil.
Beneath it all, the region’s development model looks increasingly broken. Inequality is up, civic space is shrinking, and Latin America’s youth are caught somewhere between TikTok and tear gas.
Let’s dive in. ☕
🇨🇴 Miguel Uribe, a 15-Year-Old Hitman, and the Shadow War on Colombian Democracy
The attempt to assassinate Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay, a rising conservative star and likely presidential candidate on June 7th, 2025, has thrown Colombia into a full-blown political crisis.
More than a week after a teenage gunman shot Uribe in the head and leg during a public rally in Bogotá’s Modelia neighbourhood, the senator remains in an ‘extremely critical condition’. Doctors have performed multiple surgeries and continue to monitor his neurological state. His recovery is uncertain — but what’s absolutely clear is the message this attack sends: Colombia’s democratic stability is hanging by a thread.
This wasn’t random violence. It was a calculated hit — and its alleged architect is a figure known only by his aliases: “El Costeño,” “Bayron,” or “El Negro.” According to Colombian investigators, he’s a seasoned operator within organised crime networks, skilled in moving between regions and concealing his identity. He allegedly recruited a 15-year-old boy to carry out the shooting and personally handed him the Glock pistol used in the attack. Surveillance footage and forensic evidence have now linked “El Costeño” to the operation’s logistics, including meetings with Carlos Mora González — the driver of the grey Chevrolet Spark used in the hit.
Initially, Mora claimed he barely knew the mastermind. But ride-share receipts, call logs, and a now-public photo show the two were in contact months before the attack. This growing body of evidence not only undermines Mora’s defence, but also reveals a chilling degree of planning and coordination. Authorities believe “El Costeño” was shuttled around Bogotá and Caquetá in Mora’s vehicle and that he may have overseen multiple steps in the operation. He remains at large.
The political ramifications are enormous. Uribe is the 71st political figure attacked or assassinated this year — and the most high-profile. His attempted murder comes just a year out from Colombia’s 2026 presidential election, and in a context where violence, polarisation, and organised crime are on the rise. It’s a scene that evokes the darkest chapters of Colombia’s history, when political assassinations were an everyday reality — not a historical footnote.
As El País reported, political violence had already reached alarming levels before the attack on Uribe: at least 34 political leaders were assassinated in the first four months of 2025 alone according to a report from the Electoral Observation Mission — many of them local mayors, councillors, and campaign staff. This isn’t an isolated incident — it’s part of a brutal pattern that’s undermining Colombia’s electoral process at every level.
Tens of thousands have taken to the streets in “Marchas del Silencio,” demanding an end to political violence. More than 70,000 people marched across Colombia, with Bogotá’s Plaza de Bolívar packed shoulder to shoulder, chanting “¡No más miedo!” — No more fear.
President Gustavo Petro has condemned the attack but stirred controversy by suggesting it may have links to transnational mafias or even foreign intelligence services. Others argue this is precisely the wrong moment for speculation — and the right moment for urgent action.
What’s at stake isn’t just Uribe’s health or the outcome of next year’s vote. It’s the credibility of Colombia’s democracy itself. If presidential hopefuls can be gunned down in broad daylight, what message does that send to voters, activists, and journalists? The story of Miguel Uribe Turbay is no longer just about one man. It’s about whether Colombia’s institutions can hold — or whether, once again, bullets will speak louder than ballots.
🧭 Politics and Geopolitics
China’s Advance in Latin America
New analysis shows Beijing’s growing footprint across Latin America — especially in Colombia. With U.S. influence waning, Chinese capital is rewriting the regional map.
👉 China's roadmap to dominate Latin America El Tiempo
👉 China’s Advance in Colombia in the Time of Gustavo Petro (CSIS)
World Bank: FDI Dip Spells Trouble
Fresh data reveals a sharp decline in foreign direct investment in Latin America. Instability, protectionism, and weak governance are scaring off capital — again.
👉 World Bank’s report
Six Elections, No Front-Runners
Latin America is heading into a crowded electoral season — but in six upcoming presidential races, no clear frontrunners have emerged. From Panama to the Dominican Republic, fragmented fields, voter fatigue, and anti-establishment sentiment dominate. As Boz notes, it's not just about who’s running — it’s about how trust in democracy is eroding across the board.
📊 Development & Environment
Latin America’s Development Model: Out of Breath
A powerful opinion piece calls for a rethink of Latin America’s growth path. The model that once promised middle-income stability now delivers stagnation, inequality, and social unrest. Time to recalibrate.
Brazil’s Climate Split Personality
The country plans to host COP30 in 2025. It’s also preparing to auction new offshore oil blocks. Climate champion or carbon opportunist? Brazil wants to be both.
Lithium in the Shadows
Chile’s new lithium strategy faces backlash over secrecy and exclusion. Civil society is demanding transparency — and questioning who really benefits from the country’s green rush.
👉 El País
Floods in the South, Fire in the North
Brazil’s southern region reels from devastating floods, displacing thousands. Meanwhile, cattle ranching and oil politics continue to threaten the Amazon.
👉 AP
🇺🇸✈️ Migration & Trump’s Crackdown
Latinos vs. Trump: Round 2
Bad Bunny, Pedro Pascal, and Eva Longoria have joined a growing chorus of Latino celebrities denouncing Trump’s renewed anti-immigrant crusade. This time, it’s cultural backlash as political resistance.
Cuban Mothers Punished
A heartbreaking report tells the story of Cuban women charged with child trafficking — simply for trying to bring their children into the U.S. A brutal reminder that policy often punishes the vulnerable.
Sheinbaum’s Offer to Trump
Mexico’s president-elect has offered Trump a comprehensive deal on security and migration — but insists the U.S. must respect Mexican migrants. Whether he listens is another story.
🧨 Organised Crime & Narco-States
Mexico: Cartel Laundry Day
From beach clubs to spas, the Chapitos have turned Mazatlán into a money laundering mecca — and a local makeup artist is allegedly at the centre. Meanwhile, Jalisco cartel operatives and Colombian mercenaries coordinate hits with shocking precision.
Colombia: Generation Hitman
A harrowing piece tracks the use of child hitmen in Colombia — a reality stretching back four decades. Cartels prey on poverty and promise power. The result: kids with guns, grief, and no way out.
Argentina: Dirty Dollars, Fuzzy Math
In a country hurtling through economic liberalisation, money laundering risks are on the rise — and oversight is looking the other way. Libertarianism without regulation? Criminals are loving it
🤖 Artificial Intelligence Meets Latin America
GAIA: Google’s Latin American Brainchild
Google DeepMind has unveiled GAIA, a new large language model (LLM) specifically trained on Latin American languages, idioms, and digital behaviour. Unlike previous models, GAIA (short for “Generative AI for the Americas”) aims to adapt to regional context — from Spanish and Portuguese dialects to cultural references and policy priorities.
On paper, GAIA promises more inclusive AI tools, from education to government services. But some experts warn of a new digital extractivism: if Latin Americans are the data, who controls the algorithm?
🎶 Culture & Identity
Ayahuasca, Appropriation, and Amazon Warnings
A provocative op-ed explores the rise of ayahuasca tourism and its environmental toll. What happens when psychedelics meet extractivism — and when Indigenous rituals become Instagram content?
Chile’s Bollywood Dreams
Santiago is rolling out the red carpet for Indian filmmakers. The goal? A Latin-Bollywood crossover to boost tourism and cultural diplomacy. Whether it works is a different story.
A New Chapter for Mexican Literature
From Guadalajara to the Bronx, a new generation of Mexican authors is rewriting Latin America’s literary canon. At the heart of it all: defiance, identity, and a publishing boom that’s finally crossing borders.
Colombia’s Racism Reckoning
A sobering report from El País asks whether racism is on the rise in Colombia. Amid rising violence and inequality, race remains a glaring fault line — often denied, rarely addressed.
👉 El País
Brazil: Statue of Limitations?
Brazil has greenlit construction of what would be the world’s tallest Catholic statue. Because if you can’t solve inequality, you can at least build a monument.
👉 El País
This concludes our round up the week’s stories shaping the hemisphere. Now onto our 📍Country Round up.
📍Country Round up
Argentina 🇦🇷
Shock doctrine reloaded
Inflation may be down, but repression is up. Milei expands police powers and greenlights civilian assault weapon purchases. Meanwhile, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner confirmed she won’t run — but her influence remains intact. A massive march in Buenos Aires signalled Peronism’s staying power, even as Milei’s La Libertad Avanza political party eyes a post-Kirchner landscape.
👉 Infobae
👉 Milei endorses by decree that the police can arrest and spy without a warrant
👉 Peronism shows off its mobilising power with a march in support of Cristina Kirchner:
Cristina Kirchner: La Política de Mil Vidas
Whether hero, villain, or political phoenix, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has built a mythos like no other. This feature explores her theatrical flair, her fierce loyalty base, and the image-making machine behind “La Jefa.”
👉 El País
Bolivia 🇧🇴
Coca Is Not Cocaine — Bolivia Tells the World
Bolivia is lobbying the UN to remove coca leaves from global drug control treaties, citing cultural heritage and economic need. Critics worry the move could embolden narco-politics.
Crisis Deepens as Morales Supporters Clash with Rivals
Tensions have boiled over again in Bolivia, as backers of former President Evo Morales clash with opponents over his attempted political comeback. With arrests, street blockades, and violence on the rise, the country is slipping into a familiar — and dangerous — pattern.
Brazil 🇧🇷
The Return of Brazil’s Beef Barons
Billionaire ranchers are back — and so are their political connections. After years of environmental scandal, Brazil’s beef tycoons are repositioning themselves as “sustainable.” Critics aren’t buying it.
Holy Oil and High Water
Brazil’s contradictions are peaking. While hosting COP30 next year, the government is also auctioning off oil exploration rights. Floods have devastated Rio Grande do Sul, while Lula’s team pushes forward with plans to erect the tallest Catholic statue in the world. Climate credibility? Jury’s out.
👉 Brazil to auction oil exploration rights months before hosting Cop30
👉 Brazil and the rush to build the world's largest Catholic statue, just as the number of Catholics falls to historic lows due to the advance of evangelicals
Will COP30 Fiddle While the Amazon Burns?
A searing analysis from LAB warns that while Lula rolls out the red carpet for climate diplomacy, fires in the Amazon continue to surge — often with official complicity. Brazil wants to be a climate leader, but its house is still very much on fire.
Chile 🇨🇱
Behind Closed Doors: Chile’s Lithium Gambit
As global demand for lithium soars, Chile’s latest projects are moving fast — but critics say they're being negotiated out of public sight. Citizens and environmentalists are calling for transparency.
Chile Flirts with Bollywood
In a rare East-meets-Andes moment, Chile is rolling out the red carpet for India’s film industry. The pitch? Stunning landscapes, competitive costs — and maybe a song-and-dance in the Atacama.
Towards an Inclusive Education System
A major editorial lays out the obstacles and opportunities Chile faces in reforming its education system — from inequality and access, to outdated pedagogy and digital divides.
👉 El País
Colombia 🇨🇴
Democracy Under Threat in Colombia
Even before the shocking assassination attempt on Miguel Uribe, Colombia was on edge. A report reveals 34 political leaders were murdered in just four months — a grim reminder that violence remains a powerful electoral force.
Cash-Strapped Colombia Ditches the Fiscal Rule
Facing a deepening liquidity crunch, the Colombian government has frozen its fiscal rule — a move that could spook markets and stall reforms. As debt grows and confidence dips, Petro’s economic model faces its stiffest test yet.
Seven Million Colombians Uprooted
Colombia now has over seven million internally displaced people, driven from their homes by conflict, narco-violence, and poverty. That’s nearly 14% of the country’s population. Behind every number lies a family navigating fear, uncertainty, and institutional neglect.
👉 El País
Peace Process? What Peace Process?
According to a devastating new report by Vivamos Humanos and PARES, violence in Colombia’s conflict zones has increased in 82% of departments where peace dialogues are underway. Instead of calm, the peace process has brought new actors, more fragmentation, and intensified conflict. A grim indictment of the Petro government’s “Total Peace” strategy.
Labour Reform Crosses the Finish Line
Against the odds, President Petro's labour reform bill has cleared its final Senate hurdle. The legislation promises better job security and worker protections — but critics warn it could backfire in a stagnating economy already struggling to generate formal employment.
Costa Rica 🇨🇷
Costa Rica Gets Tough on Narcos
In a rare hardline move, Costa Rica signed a new extradition treaty with the U.S. to curb the growing power of trafficking networks. But can a historically soft-on-crime country really keep up with the cartels?
A Tipping Point for Narco-State Warnings?
Costa Rica’s once-pristine image is under pressure. A new extradition treaty with the U.S. aims to crack down on drug trafficking networks, but critics say it won’t be enough without deeper reforms. For more, check out the latest episode of The Latin News Podcast — spotlighting the country’s escalating narco threats.
Cuba 🇨🇺
Cuban Mothers Charged with Child Trafficking — for Migrating
In a Kafkaesque twist, Cuban mothers who crossed into the U.S. with their children are being prosecuted under “child trafficking” laws. Critics say it’s not about justice — it’s punishment for leaving the island.
Ecuador 🇪🇨
Ecuador’s New Crime Fighter-in-Chief
The Economist profiles Ecuador’s president as he pivots from Harvard technocrat to mano dura crusader. But experts warn: cracking down on gangs without shredding civil rights is easier said than done.
Can You Fight Gangs Without Killing Democracy?
Ecuador is fast becoming a global test case for balancing crime control with constitutional limits. A Leaders piece from The Economist argues that the world is watching — and the stakes are huge.
Diana Salazar Speaks Out
Ecuador’s former attorney general says gang violence can’t be tackled with force alone — investigators need resources, allies, and yes, more Kevlar.
Concessions and Crackdowns
President Daniel Noboa is doubling down on extractive industries while intensifying the security state. New mining concessions have been approved even as his government touts a tough-on-crime agenda. But critics argue that both strategies favour international investors and political optics over long-term stability.
El Salvador 🇸🇻
🔕 No stories this round
Guatemala 🇬🇹
🔕 No stories this round
Haiti 🇭🇹
Famine Warnings, and Fading Hope
A new UN report places Haiti among the five countries most at risk of famine. The combination of gang violence, collapsed institutions, and dwindling international aid is creating a perfect storm of state failure.
👉 UN famine alert via El Pais
Drones Over Port-au-Prince
In a chilling sign of Haiti’s breakdown, drone footage now confirms what many feared: gangs fully control key neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince. As the state retreats, tech tools become evidence of a nation ruled by crime, not law.
Honduras 🇭🇳
🔕 No stories this round
Mexico 🇲🇽
Colombian Hitmen for Hire in Mexico
Colombian mercenaries are now working for Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), according to El País. It’s the outsourcing of terror — where Latin America’s most violent actors swap borders, not brutality.
👉 El País
Mexico Takes Over LA — With Flags
A wave of Mexican flags in Los Angeles has sparked debate over identity, pride, and political symbolism in an election year. Is it a fiesta of culture — or a flex of electoral muscle?
The Disappeared, Still Missing
With over 100,000 people currently disappeared, Mexico faces one of the most staggering human rights crises in the hemisphere. A new report from LAB exposes how state neglect, forensic failures, and political indifference have turned tragedy into structural abandonment.
Heineken Pours US$ 2.75 Billion into Mexico
The Dutch brewing giant is doubling down on Mexico, announcing a US$ 2.75 billion investment to expand production. It’s a major bet on Mexico’s manufacturing appeal — and a reminder that near-shoring and mega-projects continue despite security headwinds.
Nicaragua 🇳🇮
Farewell to a Democratic Icon
Nicaragua’s exiled opposition and diaspora marked the passing of Violeta Barrios de Chamorro, the country’s first female president and a symbol of post-war peace and reconciliation. Her death underscores the continued authoritarianism of the Ortega regime — and the cost of dissent in Nicaragua today.
👉 Chamorro remembered (El Pais)
U.S. Warns of Arbitrary Detention Risk
The United States has issued a stark travel advisory for Nicaragua, warning of arbitrary detentions, denial of entry, and repression of dissent. It’s the latest sign that the Ortega regime has closed off any remaining democratic space — and may be moving toward totalitarian rule.
Panama 🇵🇦
Panama’s Bug Factory Battles a Parasite
Panama has opened a sterile fly factory to halt the advance of the “gusano barrenador” (screwworm) across Central America. It’s not science fiction — it’s public health with wings.
👉 El País
Paraguay 🇵🇾
🔕 No stories this round
Peru 🇵🇪
🔕 No stories this round
Uruguay 🇺🇾
Betting on Trees, Losing the Forest?
Uruguay has become a poster child for green growth — but not without backlash. A new LAB report highlights how large-scale forestry and pulp mills are fuelling pollution, deforestation, and civil unrest in rural communities. It’s a clash between climate branding and local realities.
Venezuela 🇻🇪
New Prices, Same Problems
The Maduro government has launched a new “agreed prices” scheme in a bid to tame inflation — but trust is thin and compliance even thinner. It’s another attempt to stabilise the economy from above, while the population struggles below.
🧾 Closing Brew: What This Week Tells Us
As this week's headlines make clear, Latin America stands at an inflection point. The return of political violence in Colombia, creeping authoritarian tendencies in Argentina and beyond, and the weaponisation of migration all point to a region struggling to balance security with rights, stability with reform.
Yet amid the noise, there are sparks of resistance — in protests, in publishing, and in tech. From Bogotá to Buenos Aires, from sterile fly labs to feminist literature, Latin America is not standing still. But it is, unmistakably, at risk.
More than ever, the hemisphere needs bold thinking, accountable governance, and a refusal to accept the return of ghosts past.
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Special powers for the Police in Argentina gave me goosebumps, like Germany's rearmament in Europe. How did they react to this measure, the Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo? Didn't the Argentinians say Nunca Más?