Spotlight on Organised Crime in Colombia, Repression in Cuba and Venezuela: El Cafecito #2 del 17/10/2024
The pick of the week so far, with a focus on organised crime in Colombia and other politics and economic stories from across Latin America selected by Prof Nicolas Forsans
In this edition of El Cafecito, we analyse the latest political and economic events shaping Latin America in mid-October 2024. We start with Colombia’s recent security situation ahead of the COP 16 environmental conference to be held in Cali before exploring the week’s other big stories. This week we cover politics and economic issues in Mexico, Ecuador, Cuba and Venezuela, in particular in relation to economic development and social justice. If you enjoy these posts, please share them with friends, colleagues and family. For feedback and suggestions do get in touch!
Organised Crime Groups in Colombia
The Colombian Army claimed to ‘have regained control of El Plateado, a strategic township in Cauca’s Argelia municipality, following a military operation to drive out the front Carlos Patiño, linked to dissident FARC group Estado Mayor Central ’ reports the Bogotá City Paper. The operation, codenamed Perseo, marks the most significant effort in years to reassert government authority in a mountainous region long considered a corridor for narcotics trafficking. The paper adds this move was seen as a direct response to growing criticism that Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” agenda had failed to curb violence in regions where illegal armed groups have surged with his administration.
“Petro goes to war with EMC in Cauca”, reports Joshua at PirateWireService who adds Gustavo Petro's “total peace” plans for the country have been ‘on the back foot after the collapse of a series of ceasefires and negotiation processes, most recently with the largest remaining rebel group in the country’, the National Liberation Army (ELN).
Although the Army had been trying to take control of El Plateado on numerous occasions since 2021, this incursion of more than 1,500 troops took place in the context of the forthcoming COP16 World Biodiversity Summit, due to kick off in the city of Cali, just 217 kilometers away. An event Mordisco himself had threatened twice.
Negotiations with the EMC are particularly diffuse, in the midst of the government’s flagship ‘total peace’ policy that is failing. El Pais reports Camilo González Posso, the chief negotiator of the Government with the FARC dissident group EMC, has acknowledged that the group itself was divided into two subgroups that had fought intensely, one commanded by Mordisco and particularly strong in the departments of Cauca, Nariño and Guaviare; and one headed by Calarcá Córdoba, with a presence further north, in the Catatumbo region and in Magdalena Medio.
The Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP), a Colombia-based NGO argues that negotiating with the Clan del Golfo (Gulf Clan) is a challenging task. “President Gustavo Petro's government will face many obstacles from the past and the new reality of the Clan, a group that is not like the others sitting at the Total Peace tables”. A new report by the Foundation assesses the growing role of the Clan, today the country’s largest armed group which witnessed a doubling of its membership since 2018 and has now increased its influence over 238 municipalities in 16 departments.
Meanwhile, the strength of el Tren de Aragua, a transnational criminal organisation that evolved from the Tocorón prison in the Venezuelan state of Aragua is widely overestimated, argues Joshua from PirateWireService who states the group ‘has been unable to establish any territorial control’. “The fearsome reputation of the Tren has grown in Colombia, in no small part due to false statements by politicians and security forces, who are eager to blame them for decades-long and very homegrown problems with organized crime, as well as petty street crimes in Colombia”. The Tren expanded well beyond Venezuela’s borders by taking advantage of the exodus of migrants fleeing the country’s economic and security crises from the mid-2010s onwards. Criminal economies in which the group is involved include human trafficking, extortion, and small-scale drug trafficking.
Donald Trump amplifies false claims that US cities have been “invaded and conquered” by foreign gangs. But evidence does not support those claims (Insight Crime). Indeed, their investigations show that the group isn’t a significant threat to the United States. In April this year, they asked whether the Tren was a phantom or a reality, also concluding its strength had been widely overestimated.
Last weekend the north-east of Colombia witnessed four massacres, three of them in the Santander region in municipalities where locals warned about the emergence of a new criminal organisation that uses the name of a guerrilla group that demobilized more than 30 years ago, the Popular Liberation Army or EPL (El Pais). There had been no trace of the group after its demobilisation in 2016.
A new report by Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime entitled Urbanization, Peace & Security draws from a recent wave of academic and policy research on urban violence, conflict, and organised crime to ‘call on policy communities to directly address these urgent challenges facing the increasing share of populations in fragile and conflict-affected settings living in urban areas—not just big cities but also small towns and secondary urban centers’.
Ecuador’s energy blackout
The country has been experiencing frequent electricity blackouts of 10 hours with no prior warning, affecting consumers and industry alike. Ecuador gets the majority of its electricity from hydropower but droughts have impacted their output. The management of the energy crisis has become the main enemy of the government of President Daniel Noboa who will be seeking re-election early next year (El Pais)
Repression in Cuba
The links between Cuba and China have weakened, argues the Financial Times, as the island’s economic collapse has hurt commercial ties with China just as Beijing’s strategic rivalry intensifies with the Caribbean island’s arch-enemy, the US
Some 150 Cuban reporters have gone into exile over the past two years in the face of a witch hunt where authorities use the Penal Code to pursue the media considered contrary to their interests, reports El Pais
Human rights in Venezuela
Citing data from Laboratrorio de Paz, a Caracas-based human rights NGO, the Financial Times reports that Venezuela has cancelled the passports of ‘at least 40 people’ - mostly journalists and activists since Nicolás Maduro claimed a re-election victory, part of what rights groups say is an intensifying campaign of repression against the authoritarian president’s opponents
The UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission published a report on Tuesday, October 15 accusing the Chavista government of having committed crimes against humanity in the period before, during, and after the ballot held on July 28, which the opposition presumably won, reports El Pais. The UN rapporteurs explain that many of the arrests took place during the so-called “Operation Tun Tun,” a reference to a Christmas song in which someone appears unexpectedly at the door. This has been a common way of generating panic among the population. Some detainees were tracked down after expressing their opinions on X, Instagram, or TikTok. Bolivarian National Guards would show up unannounced at their homes and take them away.
The UN also warns of a phenomenon it considers new and of particular concern: “The mission obtained information on the detention of 158 children (130 boys and 28 girls) during or after the protests, who were charged with serious offences such as terrorism.” The UN defines children as anybody under 18 years of age.
The leader of the Venezuelan opposition, Maria Corina Machado said she was still hiding in Venezuela despite claims by Nicolás Maduro that she had abandoned the country and flown to Spain, the country that also welcomed Gonzalez Urrutia after he was cornered by the Attorney General's Office, which acts on orders of the Government, and forced to request asylum in response to an arrest warrant. “They are desperate to know where I am, but obviously I am protecting myself," she said (El Pais).
Mexico’s economy
“International investors are in wait-and-see mode,” reports the Financial Times as the country’s President Claudia Sheinbaum announced US$20bn in investments at an event with American and Mexican business leaders. It is unclear whether these are new investments. A big cloud on the horizon is
the review in 2026 of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which underpins the region’s economy. US presidential candidate Donald Trump had argued in favour of a full renegotiation and had threatened manufacturers who invest in Mexico with tariffs.
That’s all for this week.
There’s more on Monday with the best reads of the weekend.