Ecuador: from a Transit Country to a Logistical Centre for the Global Cocaine Trade
Organised crime, ideologies that shape government responses to security threats in Ecuador, regional conflicts and inequalities have all fuelled violence.
[This is a preview of my book chapter to be published in late 2024, as part of a collaborative work assessing states’ response to security and organised crime in South America. Please message me if you’d like to receive my chapter on Ecuador]
Ecuador, a small nation of 18 million people nestled in the Andean region of South America, has experienced profound transformations in its security landscape since the turn of the millennium. Although Ecuador had previously experienced isolated incidents of violence, it was not known for guerrilla or cartel activity. Often referred to as an ‘island of piece’ in a violent Latin America region, Ecuador was considered one of the safer countries in the region in recent years.
Its peaceful status has changed significantly as the country started to witness a surge in violent crime towards the end of the 2010s. The country’s descent into chaos, which culminated in a live takeover of a TV programme by armed men on January 10th, 2024 has been sudden, with Ecuador’s homicide rate increasing eightfold in just five years - to 13.7 per 100,000 population in 2021.
But the recent explosion of violence has been decades in the making and is now driven by drug trafficking groups, in particular Ecuador’s two largest gangs Los Choneros and Los Lobos, allied with Mexican, Colombian and Albanian transnational crime organisations competing over strategic routes.
In the latest World Drug Report 2024, the United Nations point to record-breaking coca production in neighbouring Bolivia, Colombia and Peru, expanding drug use and markets, particularly in Europe, and increased cocaine trafficking through Ecuador destined major destination markets in Northern America and Europe, fuelling violence in the country.
Ecuadorian police report that 80 percent of murders are linked to conflicts between criminal groups competing for control over drug trafficking, mainly cocaine.
Drug-related violence started to increase significantly in 2018, most of it related to disputes between local gangs or confined to prisons. It is estimated that cocaine is Ecuador’s sixth largest export, according to data compiled by the non-governmental Observatory of Economic Complexity.
This context helps explain the election of Daniel Noboa Azín in October 2023 in a snap election. Aged 35, he is the youngest ever Ecuadorian president. The son of Ecuador’s wealthiest businessman Álvaro Noboa, he graduated with an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management, Illinois, USA, but lacks political experience at a time when the country faces immense challenges.
Strategically positioned between Colombia and Peru, two of the world's largest cocaine producers, Ecuador has found itself increasingly entangled in the web of insurgent violence, drug trafficking and, in recent years transnational crime. Its strategic location, its internal vulnerabilities that have been left unaddressed by successive governments, and the reconfiguration of the criminal landscape in Latin America have made the country a crucial corridor for illicit activities. In under twenty years Ecuador evolved from a transit country to a sophisticated logistical centre, placing immense pressure on successive governments, each tasked with safeguarding national sovereignty and public safety.
About the Chapter
This chapter delves into the shifting security environment in Ecuador since the turn of the century, assessing the response of successive governments to the growing security challenges. It identifies the key factors that contributed to the deterioration of public safety and national stability. Through an examination of the major security threats, including the rise of organised crime, the role ideology has played in shaping government response, the impact of regional conflicts and the role of socioeconomic disparities in fuelling violence, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamics at play in Ecuador's security landscape.
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