☕️ Cuba Blacks Out as Venezuela Brightens Up
Cuba's lights flicker out as Venezuela's reforms take hold — Lula gambles, Mexico hides, and China lurks in the shadows.
Welcome back to ☕️ El Cafecito, our round up of the stories and events shaping Latin America each week.
This week, Cuba’s lights are going out while Venezuela’s prisoners walk free. Lula buys middle-class votes with vanishing taxes, and Mexico hides its body count.
While I teach my course on Business & Social Justice in Latin America, you’ll get one ☕️ Cafecito a week – with the full coverage for premium readers and a generous preview for everyone else.
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Last week we produced a two-part piece on the deteriorating situation in Cuba, and we will keep monitoring events each week in the same way as we’ve been doing on Venezuela since the US capture of Maduro on January 3.
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☕️ Cuba Blacks Out as Venezuela Brightens Up
Date: Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Edition #61
In this edition:
🇨🇺 Cuba Watch: No Oil, No Allies
🇻🇪 Venezuela Watch: Cautious Optimism
🇧🇷 Lula's Tax Vanish Wins Votes
🇲🇽 Vanished in the Void: Mexico’s 200% Surge in Disappearances Exposes a Crisis of Impunity
🇨🇴 Colombia's Child Soldiers for Sale
🌎 Populism's Bandits: Roving vs. Staying
🇨🇳 🌎 Chinese Organised Crime in Latin America: A Security Threat
🇬🇧 🇻🇪 100 Years of British Interference in Venezuela
🇨🇺 Cuba Watch: No Oil, No Allies
Cuba's economic collapse has accelerated this week under President Trump's fuel blockade, bringing hunger to city streets and raising fears of disease outbreaks.
While diplomats decry it as indirect warfare, reports suggest the US may allow limited fuel for essentials to prevent a mass exodus to Florida. Another migration wave is the last thing the US administration wants, as we wrote in last week’s deep dive:
Deepening Blackouts and Hunger
Satellite images show nighttime lights in eastern cities such as Santiago de Cuba and Holguín have fallen by as much as 50 percent since January, while Havana receives priority power through home solar panels.
The Financial Times describes scenes of hunger now common across the island, with crops rotting in fields, food deliveries halted, and UN experts warning of humanitarian disaster as fuel shortages cripple hospitals and refrigeration.
A Latin American diplomat accused the United States of intentionally creating conditions for epidemics.
Tourism Halts Amid Daily Hardships
Major airlines from Canada and Russia suspended flights to Cuba due to fuel shortages, emptying hotels and cutting off vital tourist revenue amid years of high inflation and mass emigration.
The government closed schools and universities, sending students home during blackouts lasting 12 to 18 hours, as families turn to wood-burning stoves and cancel events like weddings. Rural areas may cope longer, but city dwellers in Havana risk losing water and other basics within weeks
Possible US Fuel Concessions
The Economist reports the Trump administration is weighing small shipments of cooking gas and diesel to maintain water systems, aiming to avoid political backlash from a refugee surge to Florida’s shores. Such targeted aid would increase American influence over President Díaz-Canel’s government, which has shortened workweeks and reduced transport on top of decades-old sanctions.
In a bold move, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has stepped into the breach, sending two navy ships laden with 800 tons of food and supplies to Havana.
It is a lifeline, but a fragile one. Sheinbaum is walking a diplomatic tightrope. While the ships carried rice, beans, and powdered milk, they notably lacked the one thing Cuba needs most: oil. Under threat of severe tariffs from the Trump administration — which has vowed to punish any nation supplying fuel to the island — Mexico has officially halted its oil shipments.
It is a calculated gamble: offering humanitarian aid to appease her party’s pro-Cuba base while withholding the energy resources that would provoke Washington’s wrath. The region is caught between the crushing weight of US sanctions and the desperate need for regional solidarity.
Talk of forcing regime change persists, though without a clear successor in Havana, foreign embassies prepare contingency evacuations.
Moves to Ease the Embargo
On Thursday, Representative Jim McGovern, a Democrat from Massachusetts, introduced the US-Cuba Trade Act to repeal key embargo laws including the Helms-Burton Act; it now has 18 co-sponsors and matches a Senate companion bill.
Mexico delivered 800 tons of humanitarian aid despite US tariff warnings, as traditional supporters like China hold back. The question remains whether modest US fuel supplies will stabilise the situation or merely extend Cuba’s suffering, testing the population’s endurance more severely than in the 1990s.
🇻🇪 Venezuela Watch: Cautious Optimism
Venezuela is tasting cautious optimism this week, with US sanctions easing to revive its oil sector and early releases of political prisoners signalling reform under branch manager Delcy Rodríguez.
Last week’s US Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s visit underscores Washington’s leverage — and its demands for democratic steps.
Oil Reforms Unlock Investment
The US Treasury issued a broad license allowing American goods, tech, and services for Venezuelan oil and gas exploration, production, and maintenance, following earlier sales topping US$1 billion.
Wright met Rodríguez in Caracas, hailing “overwhelming” US interest in the world’s largest reserves while touring Chevron’s Orinoco Belt fields with Repsol execs; he seeks a “flood” of investment but offers no security guarantees.
Production could rebound to pre-blockade levels by mid-2026, per the US Energy Information Administration, as dollar auctions inject US$780 million to steady the bolívar.
Prisoner Releases and Protests
Hundreds of political prisoners, including journalist Ramón Centeno tortured for four years, have walked free since Maduro’s January 3 US capture, with families holding vigils outside jails.
Parliament debated but postponed an amnesty bill for post-1999 political offences, hashing out eligibility for exiles amid opposition demands; over 600 remain detained per Foro Penal.
Sunday’s Youth Day saw unhindered Caracas marches chanting “We are not afraid”, waving US and Venezuelan flags — a scene unthinkable under Maduro. The protest was even publicised by Venezuelan television networks including Venevisión, which for years have been forbidden from covering such events, adds The Guardian.
Health Aid and Humanitarian Shift
The United States delivered six metric tons of essential medicines and supplies to Venezuela on Friday — the first in a series of planned shipments — aimed at bolstering the country’s devastated public health system, where patients routinely provide their own syringes, gauze, and hardware.
US chargé d’affaires Laura Dogu emphasised stabilisation efforts alongside Venezuelan diplomat Félix Plasencia, who called it sovereign cooperation.
Meanwhile, branch manager (and President) Delcy Rodríguez, in an NBC interview, affirmed commitment to free elections once sanctions end and expressed interest in visiting Washington to advance ties; Energy Secretary Chris Wright referenced a shared “plan” linking oil revenues to political reforms.
US Holds the Key Levers
President Trump praised progress with Interim President Delcy Rodríguez on Truth Social, touting oil flows benefiting Venezuelans.
Policy pulls between Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s hardline stance and Richard Grenell’s engagement approach persist, as the US withholds formal government recognition — barring access to billions in frozen overseas assets.
Washington now directs PDVSA revenues, with Energy Secretary Wright conditioning full sanctions relief and free trade on severing ties with Russia, China, and Iran, plus releasing all political prisoners.
A Gold Glove poll shows 72 percent of Venezuelans view the post-Maduro trajectory positively, yet opposition leader María Corina Machado insists on institutional reforms and an election timeline before polls proceed.
🇧🇷 Lula's Tax Vanish Wins Votes
With Brazil’s October election on the horizon, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has implemented a significant income tax break, aiming to bolster his reelection bid by appealing to the middle class.
A new measure exempting monthly salaries up to 5,000 reais (US$960) from income tax took effect in January 2026. This policy, a key 2022 campaign promise, nearly halves the number of Brazilians paying income tax — removing an estimated 11.3 million people from the tax rolls.
To offset the lost revenue, the government introduced a minimum tax on high earners (above 50,000 reais/month) and a 10% tax on corporate dividends sent abroad.
Economic Tailwinds and Political Strategy
This move is strategically designed to widen Lula’s appeal beyond his traditional low-income base to a middle class that has drifted toward the political right.
The extra disposable income — estimated to inject 28 billion reais (US$5.4 billion) into the economy — is expected to fuel consumption, with beneficiaries planning to spend on everything from gym memberships to groceries.
Coupled with record-low unemployment and cooling inflation, the tax break strengthens Lula’s hand, giving him a 4-7 point lead in recent polls, though economists warn it prioritises short-term consumption over long-term productivity and debt reduction.
🇲🇽 Vanished in the Void: Mexico’s 200% Surge in Disappearances Exposes a Crisis of Impunity
A harrowing new report reveals disappearances in Mexico have surged by over 200% in the last decade, with more than 130,000 people now missing as criminal groups diversify and expand territorial control.
The report documents an “uncontrollable” rise in disappearances and challenges the government’s narrative of “pacification”. It reveals a much darker reality hidden in the statistics.
1. Lethal Violence is Structurally High, Despite “Decreases”
While the government boasts a 40% drop in intentional homicides since September 2024, the report argues this is a partial containment. Lethal violence in 2025 is still 68.2% higher than in 2015. Violence is moving into less visible categories (like disappearances or “culpable” homicides) to artificially lower murder rates.
2. Statistical Anomalies Suggest Manipulation
The report evidences suspicious spikes in crime categories that should be stable, suggesting they are being used to hide intentional murders:
“Culpable Homicides” (Manslaughter): Supposedly accidental deaths have surged 114.4% since 2015. In violent states like Quintana Roo and Michoacán, rates of “accidental” killings now rival or exceed intentional murders, which is statistically improbable.
“Other Crimes Against Life”: This vague category has skyrocketed by 368.3% since 2015. In Baja California, it’s used so frequently (66.2 per 100k inhabitants) that it likely hides misclassified homicides.
3. Disappearances as a Tool of Concealment
Disappearances (+213% since 2015) function as a mechanism to hide lethal violence. The highest rates of disappearances occur in the same “hotspots” as homicides (e.g., Sinaloa, Baja California), confirming they are part of the same criminal strategy to “erase” bodies and lower official murder counts.
These trends reflect a strategic shift by cartels from mere drug smuggling to forced recruitment, organ trafficking, and human smuggling. Criminal organisations now routinely bury or dissolve victims to “invisibilise” violence and evade authorities.
Meanwhile, the government’s response falters: former President López Obrador controversially slashed the official count to roughly 12,000 before the 2024 election, and current President Sheinbaum dismisses the new data despite UN findings that 96% of crimes go unsolved.
A Silent Epidemic
This spike signifies more than just violence; it marks the systemic collapse of state control and the normalisation of terror. By erasing bodies, cartels effectively erase the crime, leaving families in perpetual limbo — ”broken pieces” that never heal.
The government’s downplaying of figures and underfunding of search commissions exposes a political refusal to confront the magnitude of the humanitarian crisis, forcing mothers to become forensic investigators in a land where impunity reigns supreme.
Full edition for paid subscribers →
🇨🇴 Colombia’s Child Soldiers for Sale
🌎 Populism’s Bandits: Roving vs. Staying
🇨🇳 🌎 Chinese Organised Crime in Latin America: A Security Threat
🇬🇧 🇻🇪 100 Years of British Interferences in Venezuela
🇨🇴 Colombia's Child Soldiers for Sale
Colombia’s conflict has morphed into a predatory war on children. A new Crisis Group report reveals a booming trade in minors, with hundreds lured by false promises of wealth, status, or escape from domestic violence, only to become expendable tools for armed groups expanding their grip since the 2016 peace deal.