El Cafecito #9 del 22/11/2024
Colombia's ban on child marriage, shifting geopolitical influences in the region and migrants' rush to reach the USA ahead of Inauguration day. By Prof. Nicolas Forsans
Welcome to this week’s edition of our Cafecito, our take on what happened in Latin America this week through our selection of the best reads and our lens on social progress. From China's growing influence in the region to Colombia's historic ban on child marriage and Argentina’s plan to privatise a 3,400km long strategic waterway, Latin America is experiencing profound changes that are reshaping its geopolitical landscape. This week's roundup explores how the region is navigating complex international relationships, domestic challenges and on-going struggles, and social progress, offering a glimpse into the diverse forces at play across this dynamic continent.
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Social progress in Colombia after the country (finally) bans child marriage 🇨🇴
At last, Colombia bans child marriage, rejoices El Tiempo, noting that it took 10 bills and 17 years for Congress to finally ban “the harmful practice of child marriage and de facto marital unions involving a minor”. Child marriage and early unions were not expressly prohibited in the Colombian legal framework. Although it’s been modified over time, the paper notes that Colombia’s Civil Code, which dates from 1873, had allowed the union between men over 21 years of age and women over 8, as per Article 116. This was rectified in 1974 with a Decree specifying that only adults have the capacity to enter into a marriage. However, a 2009 law still stated 14 years as the minimum age for a marriage. The formal union of a minor was permitted with permission from his or her guardian. The approved bill prohibits not only child marriage, but also de facto marital unions and property partnerships when they involve a minor. It also allows for annulment in these cases.
According to the most recent figures dating from 2018, more than 340,000 girls in Colombia have been victims of child marriage, which involves violence, abuse and femicide, adds El Espectador. Although the number of de facto marital unions is under-reported, data show that ranked 20th worldwide and 11th in Latin America with respect to the number of girls married or in unions before the age of 15, as of 2020. Around 17% of unions at that time involved an adolescent between 13 and 19 years old, and eight out of ten involved girls and adolescents. Research by UNICEF Colombia showed that “girls between 10 and 14 years old were 2.62 times more exposed to an early union than a boy of the same age, and that female adolescents between 15 and 19 years old were three times more likely to enter in an early union than male adolescents of the same age.”
The country is closing a 137-year legal loophole, becoming one of 12 in Latin America and the Caribbean to entirely ban marriage for minors, writes The Guardian. Despite decades of economic and social development, the prevalence of child marriage had barely budged due to a deeply ingrained machista culture, decades of internal conflict and narcoculture.
Children who marry are more likely to have an early pregnancy and die in childbirth, drop out of school and become victims of domestic violence. Studies have long shown child marriage is strongly linked to poverty and oppressive relationships. Child and forced marriage cannot be understood without considering the socioeconomic context of the families who, in many cases, choose to give up their minor daughters to improve their living conditions. “Although child marriage occurs in all social situations, it is more prevalent in vulnerable circumstances. Hunger and poverty have led families to give their daughters to older men to ensure they have food”. Rural, indigeneous and afro-descendents adolescents were far more exposed to such practice.
Indeed, indigenous communities had integrated the practice of child marriage as part of their culture and way of life, notes El Espectador.
The Colombian departments with the highest incidence of cases are Antioquia, Cundinamarca, Tolima and Valle del Cauca, according to the country’s statistical agency DANE, and although the practice is 21.5% more frequent in rural areas, compared to urban areas, it “occurs throughout the country and can affect any child or adolescent”.
The country is also struggling with the sexual exploitation of its children - we cover it further down 👇
This week in Latin America: the best reads
China’s influence in Latin America
El Tiempo (Colombia) has a lengthy piece detailing China’s influence in Latin America evidenced with the inauguration last week of the new port of Chancay in Peru. We covered the story in our Cafecito last week.
The megaport is considered the jewel in the crown of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Latin America, one of Xi's priority initiatives established a decade ago, inspired by the ancient Silk Road, and with which he seeks to consolidate a global network of cooperation and connectivity with a focus on key infrastructure. More than 146 countries have joined the project, including 22 from Latin America and the Caribbean. Since 2013, in excess of 200 projects have been developed in the region, according to official data, including:
the reconstruction and launch of Manta International Airport in Ecuador, the renovation and expansion of the port of St. John's in Antigua and Barbuda, the modernisation of the first metro line in Mexico City, the first metro line in Bogotá and the Autopista al Mar 2 in northern Colombia, the development of a large part of Brazil's electricity transmission networks by the Chinese energy giant State Grid, and the Deep Space station operated by China in Patagonia.
China has been a major player in the revitalisation of Latin America this century. Between 2003 and 2022, China's foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region amounted to US$187.5 billion, according to Inter-American Dialogue data cited by El Tiempo. China is already the main trading partner of most Latin American nations, except Colombia and Mexico which trade more with the USA. The USA are watching closely given the geopolitical and commercial influence of China in its backyard.
Brazil courts China as its Musk feud erupts again, writes The Economist, adding that Donal Trump’s re-election overshadowed Lula’s ‘big bash’ as he presided over the G20 Summit last weekend. The creation of a global alliance to reduce hunger and poverty, an agreement to reform global institutions such as the IMF and the UN, and an increase in countries’ financial commitments to combat climate change were key objectives for the Summit. Yet, Brazil's G20 seals a minimal consensus under Trump's shadow, writes El Pais, adding that for Lula, this summit was “an opportunity for the most powerful countries to look again at long-standing and little-treated problems in a world of crises and conflicts, such as hunger and poverty”. While Donald Trump will not subscribe to the agreement signed last week, The Economist argues Lula will turn to China instead. It details several (mostly political) factors that have been pushing Brazil and China together, including Trump’s threat to push for 60% tariffs on Chinese imports. China overtook the United States as Brazil’s biggest trade partner in 2009, during Lula’s second term. Commerce continues to expand despite slowing Chinese growth. Brazilian exports to China are running at record highs, with Brazil one of a handful of countries that boast a trade surplus with China.
A Chinese state-backed company plans to launch a satellite service to compete with Elon Musk’s Starlink in Brazil, in the latest challenge for the US as Beijing expands its influence in Latin America, writes the FT, adding that “the announcement from SpaceSail, which is developing high-speed internet services through low Earth orbit satellites, came as Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to Brazil this week, where he signed an upgraded partnership” with president Lula. The deal follows the high profile dispute between Elon Musk and Brazilian authorities in relation to Twitter/X. The paper adds that Brazil had sought to encourage competitors to Starlink, which controls almost half the satellite internet market in Latin America’s largest nation. The agreement, it adds, “echoes one of Xi’s core diplomatic doctrines, building a “community of common destiny for mankind”, which analysts believe refers to Beijing’s pursuit of a multipolar world that will enable its rise while eroding US dominance”.
And finally, the FT has an article by Latin American editor Michael Stott on the US’s waning influence in Latin America. “Joe Biden loses to Xi Jinping in battle for Latin America”, he writes while exploring the growing geopolitical influence of China in Latin America, contrasting its strategic investments with the comparatively modest efforts of the United States. Highlighting symbolic moments at recent summits, such as Xi Jinping's prominent appearances versus Joe Biden's lower visibility, it underscores China's rising prominence in a resource-rich region vital to global interests. China's trade with Latin America has surged to $450 billion in 2023, with significant investments in critical sectors like minerals, infrastructure, and technology. By contrast, U.S. initiatives, such as anti-drug programs and conservation funding, appear outdated and lack substantial economic impact, he argues. Analysts warn that underwhelming U.S. policies, compounded by a potential return of Donald Trump could deepen China's economic dominance, exacerbating political divisions in the region while sidelining U.S. influence.
Argentina plans to privatise a key waterway 🇦🇷
River communities in Argentina fear that Javier Milei’s plans to privatise operations on a key shipping route could lead to environmental damage and destroy their way of life, writes The Guardian. Since becoming president, Javier Milei pledged to privatise a number of the state’s assets. The latest is the Paraguay-Paraná waterway – a shipping route of strategic importance for Argentina and its neighbours. The waterway is more than 3,400km (2,100 miles) long, provides “inland areas of Paraguay, Bolivia and southern Brazil with access to the sea” and is vital for the transportation of soya bean and grains overseas. Nearly 80% of Argentina’s foreign trade is channelled through it. For some, this proposal is “the biggest and most important privatisation” the Milei administration has undertaken so far, with far-reaching geopolitical implications.
(More) Argentina 🇦🇷
French President Emmanuel Macron paid tribute in Buenos Aires to 22 French victims of the dictatorship that began in 1976, writes El Pais. The regime tried to blame the kidnapping of two French nuns and 20 others on the Peronist guerrilla group Los Montoneros with a photo of both women sitting in front of a flag of the organisation, and both already had obvious signs of torture. They were later thrown alive from a military plane into the Atlantic, off the coast of southern Buenos Aires province, in one of the so-called “death flights.” Captain Astiz, the Angel of Death, now 73 years old, was convicted over the death of dozens of missing detainees, including the case of the French nuns. Last July, a group of MPs from La Libertad Avanza, Milei’s party, visited him in the federal prison in Ezeiza. The meeting was repudiated by the political opposition and by human rights organisations, and generated tension within the government - as not everyone embraces the denial of state terrorism promoted by Javier Milei.
Bilateral relations between France and Argentina are marked by obstacles in the negotiations for a free trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur. France opposes it, claiming it threatens the survival of French farmers following a potential massive influx of agricultural products from Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, the four partners of the South American bloc.
Argentina was the only country to oppose a United Nations resolution aimed at denouncing violence against women and girls on Thursday. While Iran, Russia and North Korea abstained, Argentina’s opposition to the non-binding resolution took the world by surprise, writes AP, evidencing the latest in a series of dramatic foreign policy shifts under President Milei, the most right-wing leader in Argentina’s 41 years of democracy. “Not only has Milei transformed Argentine foreign policy in line with the United States and Israel, his government has also taken fringe positions on the global stage that fly in the face of the liberal, rules-based international order”.
La Nacion reports that Argentina’s country risk index produced by JP Morgan fell to 800 basis points and reached the lowest value in more than five years, adding that a more favourable international climate for Argentina, the consolidation of the financial surplus and the accumulation of reserves by the Central Bank all contributed to the more positive outlook on the economy.
Attempted plot to kill Brazil’s Lula 🇧🇷
Brazil’s police arrested five people, including military personnel, accused of planning a coup and plot to kill President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, his deputy and a top judge shortly before the left winger assumed power, reports the FT. The plan “aimed to prevent Lula taking office at the start of last year following his October 2022 election victory over incumbent rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro, but was aborted by the plotters before being put into action”, the judicial document said. Most of those arrested had special forces training, with four of them military officers and the other one from Brazil’s equivalent to the FBI. Earlier this year investigators released documents alleging that military officers and political allies of Bolsonaro, a former army captain, developed a detailed scheme to prevent a handover of power.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s police indicted the country’s former president Jair Bolsonaro and 36 others for allegedly attempting a coup to keep the right-wing leader in office after his defeat in the 2022 election. Already barred from running again in 2026 for a different case, Bolsonaro could now land in jail and see his influence further diminished, adds AP. It is the latest major development in wide-ranging investigations into alleged attempts to subvert Brazil’s democracy in the run-up to and aftermath of the October 2022 elections, notes the FT. Last year he was barred from standing for office until 2030 over campaign violations. El Pais recalls that thousands of Bolsonaro supporters staged a coup attack in Brasilia on January 8, 2023, a week after Lula was sworn in for a third non-consecutive term. So far, only some of the perpetrators of that attack have been tried and convicted . The Supreme Court has imposed harsh sentences on more than 200 people, but none of those accused of instigating or financing the coup attempt have yet been brought to trial.
(More) Brazil 🇧🇷
Brazil’s gangsters have been getting into politics, and they want friendly officials to help them launder money, writes The Economist. This follows the sentencing of two former policemen to 138 years in jail for murdering Marielle Franco, a gay black woman councillor from a favela and an icon of Brazil’s left. She had made it her mission to expose links between local politicians and militias in Rio, adds the paper. “She may have been killed for denouncing attempts by militia members to seize public land illegally and build on it”. Founded by former policemen, Rio’s militias gained prominence in the 1990s by “hunting down drug traffickers, winning the support of terrified residents and forging links with local politicians”. Yet, the paper writes, today they extract a security tax in areas they control and charge residents for access to gas, internet, transport services and electricity. More recently, they have started trafficking the drugs themselves. Brazil’s criminal groups are walking the militias’ path in reverse. Gangs are increasingly funding politicians, paying off local prosecutors and bureaucrats, and laundering their assets through the legal economy. More here.
Colombia’s struggle with child sexual exploitation 🇨🇴
Authorities attack child sexual exploitation by foreigners with digital investigation networks and long sentences, reports El Pais. The story of a foreigner traveling to Medellín in search of sex, legal or illegal, has become common in the last decade. One of the most notorious cases occurred last March, when the American Timothy Alan Livingston, 36, was discovered by the police with two girls aged 12 and 13 at the Gotham hotel, located in the trendy area of El Poblado. He left the country before they could capture him and is now the subject of an Interpol arrest warrant. Faced with the increase in crimes and the outrage surrounding them, local and regional politicians have taken up the discursive banners of the fight against child sexual exploitation. Medellin’s mayor, Federico Gutiérrez, has adopted the controversial measure of a curfew for unaccompanied minors between 7pm and 5am in the areas of greatest risk. The paper reports closer working with US agencies to strengthen intelligence processes and dismantle transnational networks has led to more arrests. But a report by Colombia’s Fundación Ideas para la Paz shows that progress has been limited, with only 212 judicial proceedings opened for child sexual exploitation (among them, 72 are inactive) despite “at least 8,131 complaints for commercial sexual exploitation of children and adolescents between 2021 and 2023”.
(More) Colombia 🇨🇴
Colombia’s government is eager for a post-fossil fuels economy, but the costs are a barrier, reports AP. Colombian President Gustavo Petro set a goal of weaning Colombia off those fossil fuels, putting the green energy transition and environmental protection at the centre of his agenda. Partly because there’s no alternative - Colombia’s oil reserves are projected to last only about seven years, and without new discoveries, the country will eventually have to find a way forward without the oil and coal that make up more than half its exports, adds AP. But higher borrowing costs than for more developed nations are an obstacle.
Colombia’s Congress is advancing a constitutional reform to significantly increase revenue transfers to municipalities and departments, aiming to enhance local autonomy and decentralisation. While widely supported by lawmakers and local authorities, the proposed increase from 23.8% to 39.5% of government revenues over 12 years could strain Colombia’s fragile fiscal health, pushing deficits and public debt to unsustainable levels, writes Luis fernando Mejía, Executive Director of Fedesarrollo in Americas Quarterly. Critics warn of fiscal risks, particularly given declining tax revenues and mounting costs from recent reforms.
Colombia's centralised fiscal system has created severe regional inequities, with 89% of tax revenues retained by the central government, leaving municipalities and departments with insufficient resources to address their constitutional responsibilities in education, health, and infrastructure (El Pais). The 1991 Constitution sought to address this imbalance by mandating equitable transfers, but subsequent reforms in 2001 and 2007 reversed progress, depriving territorial entities of US$131 billion and exacerbating disparities between the prosperous Andean centre and impoverished peripheral regions. These inequities contribute to regional instability, fuelling public discontent and violence. Critics argue for a restructuring of the tax system to share revenues like VAT and income taxes between the central government and local entities, enabling genuine fiscal autonomy and sustainable development. Without such reforms, Colombia's geographic inequality will hinder peace and human development while diverting resources to defence rather than addressing systemic poverty.
Cuba 🇨🇺
The Guardian reports on documentary film-maker Nanfu Wang’s difficulties encountered while following an activist in Cuba for “her revealing, and timely, new film” ‘The Night is Not Eternal’. “You have to be prepared for the worst’: making a film on the fight for democracy in Cuba”. The film is now available on Max in the USA with a UK date to be announced.
Ecuador 🇪🇨
Colombia will resume energy sales to Ecuador to help alleviate the energy crisis in Ecuador, reports El Tiempo, citing Colombia’s Foreign Minister. Colombia had suspended electricity sales to Ecuador at the start of October amid energy shortages of its own. Drought, and deeper structural problems within the power sector, with insufficient investment, misguided policy decisions, slow reactions to repeated warnings and a lack of strategies to adapt to extreme weather events have caused 50 days of energy rationing and daily, 14 hour-long blackouts in the country, causing a significant impact on the country’s economy. According to Ecuadorian authorities, the country currently requires about 1,000 megawatts to cover the current deficit, since 70 percent of its total generation comes from hydroelectric plants.
Haiti’s violence 🇭🇹
Russia and China oppose changing the Kenya-led force in Haiti to a United Nations peacekeeping mission, reports AP. The United States had proposed a U.N. peacekeeping mission in early September as one way to secure regular financing for the U.N.-backed multinational force, which faces a serious funding crisis. But Russia and China refused to discuss the resolution and instead called for Wednesday’s council meeting where they made their opposition clear, adds AP. The U.N. estimates the gangs control 85% of the capital and have spread into surrounding areas.
A surge in violence in Haiti has left more than 150 people dead during the last week after gangs took over much of the capital Port-au-Prince and the population fought back, explains The Times. Haiti has suffered years of violence as criminal groups, “often with their own murky political connections, have taken advantage of a near-absent state to control entire swathes of territory”, adding that they raise money primarily through extortion and kidnapping.
The turmoil in Port-au-Prince deepened late Tuesday, when Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) announced it was suspending critical care across the capital as it accused police officers of violence and threats against its staff, including rape and death, reports AP. The attack comes days after gang violence forced Haiti’s main international airport to shut down for the second time this year as the country swore in a new prime minister following political infighting. The violence has led to widespread gang control, with estimates suggesting that gangs now dominate 85% of Port-au-Prince.
Meanwhile, authorities in the neighbouring Dominican Republic have arrested a colonel and nine officers accused of stealing weapons and ammunition from the police department’s armory and illegally selling them to people including criminals in neighbouring Haiti, where violence has surged. A document seen by AP stated that one of the suspects arrested, a woman who lives in the southern Dominican province of Pedernales, which borders Haiti, is accused of receiving dozens of boxes of ammunition of different calibers that were sold from $86 to $99 each. It noted that “Miguelina Bello Segura sold them to Haitians who would routinely use them to commit crimes”. The colonel who was arrested, Narciso Antonio Feliz Romero, received “cash stuffed into a backpack from an officer who sold ammunition via a contact in Haiti”. Last year, the U.N. published a report noting that weapons and ammunition reach Haiti largely via the Dominican Republic, and, to some extent, Jamaica.
Nicaragua 🇳🇮
Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega on Wednesday proposed a constitutional reform that would officially make him and his wife, current Vice President Rosario Murillo, “copresidents” of the Central American nation. The AP writes that, “while the initiative has to pass through the country’s legislature, Ortega and Murillo’s Sandinista party control the congress and all government institutions, so it is likely to be approved”. Under the proposal, the presidential term would be extended to six years from five. Ortega put forward another bill on Wednesday that would make it illegal for anyone to enforce sanctions from the United States or other foreign bodies “within Nicaraguan territory.” The OAS denounced the proposal, arguing it represents a “definitive attack on the democratic rule of law”. It follows an ongoing crackdown by the Ortega government since mass social protests in 2018 that the government violently repressed. AP adds that since 2018, the Ortega government has shuttered more than 5,000 organisations, largely religious, and forced thousands to flee the country.
Venezuela 🇻🇪
The United States has for the first time recognised Edmundo González Urrutia, the opposition candidate, as Venezuela’s president-elect following the presidential election last July, reports El Pais . Washington had previously declared González the winner of that election on August 1. The change comes two months after Nicolás Maduro is sworn in for a new term on January 10 and the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20.
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro spoke in an interview with Brazilian news outlet Globo News, with excerpts released online in which he said he was “initially was in favour of Venezuela holding the elections, but that he later decided that the vote was not “free.”, reports AP. “I think the elections were a mistake,” Petro said. His office did not immediately respond to a request by AP for him to elaborate on the reasons for his change of heart. Venezuela’s next presidential term begins Jan. 10. AP reports that Maduro has already received an invitation from the ruling party-controlled National Assembly for a swearing-in ceremony.
Crypto in Latin America
- has an interesting explainer on the growing usage of crypto currencies in Latin America. They are used for savings and investments, remittances, trading, and bitcoin mining. The article details the state of regulation in the region.
Organised Crime in the region
Colombia’s peace negotiations 🇨🇴
The Segunda Marquetalia, a dissident faction of the former FARC guerrillas led by Iván Márquez, has disintegrated as two key subgroups, the Comandos de la Frontera and the Coordinadora Guerrillera del Pacífico declared independence while affirming their intent to negotiate with the Colombian government under President Gustavo Petro. Márquez, whose whereabouts remain unknown, has reportedly opposed ongoing peace talks, further fracturing the group. Despite internal divisions, the government continues its peace agenda with remaining factions, focusing on de-escalating violence, establishing peace territories, and addressing victims' rights. The group's decline highlights broader challenges in Colombia's efforts to integrate armed dissidents into its "total peace" policy amidst competing factions, legal ambiguities, and persistent conflicts involving other armed groups.
Two years after initiating peace talks with the Colombian government, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) guerrilla group attacked soldiers near a reintegration area for former FARC fighters in Anorí, Antioquia, killing five and injuring four others, including a civilian. The attack occurred when the negotiating table between the ELN and the national government, as part of its total peace policy, is at a standstill. The paper reports that, on November 21, 2022, in Caracas, President Gustavo Petro “presented to the country and the world an eclectic negotiating team with the aim of generating consensus in society”. However, as the months went by, dialogues that were already perceived as difficult began to drag on. Along the way, differences between the negotiating teams and tensions also emerged. The attack underscores the fragile state of negotiations, which have faced significant challenges, including disputes between the government and ELN leaders over commitment to peace and ongoing violence. Critics highlight the ELN's reluctance to renounce armed conflict, casting doubt on the success of Colombia's "total peace" policy. Talks remain stalled amid escalating tensions and mutual mistrust.
(More) Colombia 🇨🇴
An interesting research article investigates the Colombian National Liberation Army (ELN) intervention in an economic broker by coopting local and communal power. The paper argues the ELN’s footprint on both sides of the border varies. In Colombia, “the group has captured the state, while in Venezuela, it created a parallel state”. The paper identifies how the organisation became an economic broker between coopting local and communal power, a process that “informs how the group competes and/or cooperates with adversaries, enemies, and state officials in a bargaining scheme that takes the form of criminal governance arrangements”.
Criminal groups continue to thrive on illicit trade despite the reopening of the Colombia-Venezuela border, writes InsightCrime, adding that to offset a slight dip in revenue, they have ramped up their extortion efforts, increasingly targeting local communities
Child recruitment in the Colombian conflict 🇨🇴
InsightCrime has an article on child recruitment by armed groups in Colombia. The guerrillas, including the ELN and the now-demobilised FARC are the main alleged perpetrators of this crime, concentrating 57% of cases of child recruitment. Child recruitment by armed groups in Colombia remains a critical issue amid ongoing peace negotiations. Despite a 98% reduction in documented cases since the early 2000s, underreporting due to fear in conflict zones obscures the extent of the problem. Groups like the ELN, ex-FARC factions, and AGC recruit minors to bolster ranks, control drug trafficking corridors, and secure territorial advantages in disputes over illicit economies. Historical peaks in recruitment have often coincided with intensified military actions or territorial conflicts. Recent efforts for peace have paradoxically driven groups to expand recruitment as a contingency against negotiation failures and desertions.
Central America
Understanding the Root Causes of Corruption, Crime, and Gangs in Central America. The Northern Triangle countries—Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador—are plagued by powerful gangs like MS-13 and Barrio 18, prompting governments to adopt “tough on crime” policies such as ‘mano dura’ strategies. While these measures temporarily reduced homicide rates, they also resulted in prison overcrowding, strengthened gang networks, and widespread human rights abuses, without addressing the structural issues enabling organised crime: corruption and impunity. High-profile scandals implicate political elites, illustrating a symbiotic relationship between state actors and criminal networks. International anti-corruption efforts, like Guatemala’s CICIG, have faced resistance, and lasting reform requires implementing existing laws and ensuring political will. Without addressing corruption, these nations remain trapped in a cycle of violence and instability.
Urbanisation and Organised Crime
A report by GNID investigates the link between urbanisation and organised crime in the Global South, where cities are expanding rapidly, the rule of law often lags, creating opportunities for criminal organisations to exploit governance gaps. From 2020 to 2070, the number of cities in low-income countries is projected to grow by 76%, with urban land area expected to expand by 141%. The massive growth in urban areas, combined with weak governance, has already led to alarming rates of violence and human rights abuses.
Migration on the rise ahead of Donald Trump’s Inauguration
About 1,500 migrants formed a new caravan on Wednesday in southern Mexico, hoping to walk or catch rides to the U.S. border, reports AP, adding that the “migrants are mainly from Central and South America. Some say they are hoping to reach the United States before Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, saying they think it might be more difficult after that”. Caravans provide safety in numbers, making it hard or impossible for immigration agents to detain groups of hundreds of migrants.
Migrant caravans speed up in Mexico as Donald Trump becomes president, writes El Pais, as three groups have left for the United States since the election, while humanitarian organisations warn that the number will rise before the end of the year.
“Since this summer, the United States government has allowed people to apply for a humanitarian visa through an application called CBP One , run by the Customs and Border Protection office. Migrants must wait in Mexican territory for an appointment at one of eight border ports. However, as asylum applications have increased, waiting times have become longer, at least seven or eight months. The desperation of an appointment that never comes, the threat of organized crime and the possibility of being kidnapped, extorted or worse, have caused thousands of people to set out on their own. More and more migrants are joining the caravans, while shelters in Tapachula are at maximum capacity, as is the case of the Belén shelter, with a maximum of 150 places, and more than 270 people housed”, it writes.
So far this year, the irregular entry of people into Mexico has doubled compared to the same period last year, adds El Pais. More than 925,000 migrants crossed the borders from January to August, according to official figures. Of the total, more than 108,000 were children and adolescents. “Humanitarian organisations are preparing for the number of migrants to continue to increase in the coming months. They all want to get there — or at least try to — before Donald Trump closes the border further”.
Mexico is prioritising migration policy in response to Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and plans to deport up to one million irregular migrants annually, writes El Pais. President Claudia Sheinbaum has mobilised her Cabinet to counter these measures by showcasing the economic contributions of Mexican migrants and emphasising the benefits of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Sheinbaum has highlighted the role of remittances, which account for 4% of Mexico’s GDP, and pledged to strengthen Mexico’s consular network to protect its diaspora, despite budget cuts. The looming threat of mass deportations and border closures poses significant challenges, alongside increased tensions over Trump's appointments of hardline officials and proposals to label Mexican cartels as terrorist groups. Mexico hopes to moderate US policies by demonstrating its value as a cooperative partner, but uncertainty remains high.
Despite a dip in migration numbers through the Darien Gap in October, which may be due in part to weather conditions, WOLA reports that analysts and border-security planners continue to expect the number of migrants approaching the U.S.-Mexico border to increase ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as people race to reach U.S. soil before a crackdown.
While migration levels to the USA remain low compared to previous years, recent increases in detentions suggest a potential surge before Trump enacts his hardline immigration agenda, including mass deportations and expanded detention facilities. Biden’s measures, such as tripling expedited removals and reducing releases pending court hearings, have already resulted in record deportations and a sharp decline in migrant entries. However, Trump’s plans, including the declaration of a national emergency and the deployment of the military for border enforcement, signal an even harsher crackdown. Both nations remain on high alert for escalating border tensions.
Tens of thousands from Latin America are rushing to cross Mexico, reports The Times, fearing the US president-elect’s promised crackdown using the military could leave them stranded. It adds that “all over Mexico, government officials and support groups are bracing for a surge of refugees racing to the border before his inauguration”.
Despite efforts to facilitate enrolment of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia’s education system, barriers persist due to study plans, attention to lagging students and xenophobia, warns research from the Universidad del Rosario and Javeriana universities. El Pais reports that Venezuelan associations Colvenz and Funvenex have received queries from migrants who have problems registering their children. Some 2,800 Venezuelans cross the border into Colombia every day, motivated by political uncertainty and the difficult economic situation in Venezuela. Of these, “60% cross illegally, only with expired ID cards or passports,” according to Fundaredes.
This week in Podcasts
Our selection of interesting podcasts we listened to this week…
Americas Quarterly
An overview of Brazil’s politics and economy following Brazil’s recent municipal elections
The Brazilian Report
Latin America In Focus (AS/COA)
Wilson Center
El Hilo
🎧 Listen on all podcast platforms
And finally…
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